Cibus Nordic - A premium for the premier

Cibus’ strategy proceeds according to plan and further Nordic expansion seems inevitable. We find Cibus’ premium justified, while gains beyond the current point seem unlikely without additional property market revaluations. Our TP is now SEK 205 (195); our rating is HOLD (SELL).

Portfolio performance was again very close to estimates

Cibus’ portfolio continued to perform as expected and there were very little changes to key metrics. Q2 net rental income amounted to EUR 18.5m, the same as our and consensus’ estimates. Administration expenses were EUR 1.8m, as we estimated, and included EUR 0.4m in one-offs (for the most part related to the Nasdaq Stockholm transition). Net financial costs were EUR 5.9m, a bit higher than our EUR 5.4m estimate.

We view Cibus the premier Nordic grocery property owner

The Nasdaq Stockholm switch has, among other developments, rendered Cibus’ shares more liquid and attractive for acquisitions. We consider Cibus the leading owner for Nordic daily-goods properties and thus the company is in a great position to gain further property mass within selected markets. We would expect Cibus to expand to either Norway or Denmark (or both) next year at the latest. This would be straightforward in the sense that the Nordic markets are all quite similar. Meanwhile acquisitions within Finland and Sweden should continue and Cibus has already announced more than EUR 130m in add-ons this year. Cibus was able to purchase these at a 6% yield. Cibus sees the price level remains stable for now and expects to make many more small deals in addition to possible larger portfolio acquisitions, for which it can tap equity and debt.

We find valuation full barring further property revaluations

In our opinion a premium to book is justified, but we consider Cibus’ 1.25x EV/GAV already significant, and at least any additional big gains would seem hard from these levels. We view Cibus’ shares pretty much fully valued, but we note the Nordic property sector’s revaluation could continue to drive further gains also for Cibus’ shares. Cibus already has a competitive organization for managing the leading Nordic grocery property portfolio, however we find Cibus’ valuation has in the past followed other Nordic property portfolios’ yields very closely. Our TP is now SEK 205 (195) and our new rating is HOLD (SELL).

Open Report