CapMan - Good progress negated by FV changes

Name: Evli
Price range: $

CapMan’s Q1 results were slightly better than expected and underlying performance remained good, although EBIT as a result of negative fair value changes as expected fell clearly, to EUR -6.0m (Evli/cons. -7.5m/-3.9m). Fundraising projects continue but delays of 0-6 months are seen. Cost savings of up 10% of the cost base are sought without affecting growth ambitions. We retain our BUY-rating and TP of EUR 1.95.

Negative FV changes spoiled otherwise good profitability
CapMan’s Q1 results came in slightly better than we had expected, with revenue of EUR 11.9m (Evli/cons. 10.7m) and EBIT of EUR -6.0m (Evli/cons -7.5m/-3.9m). Termination of the 2018 share plan caused a one-off cost of approx. EUR 1.4m. Unrealized FV changes amounted to EUR -10.5m. Profitability of the Management company and Service businesses improved clearly y/y, the latter aided by success fees from Scala but also seeing good development overall.

2020 an unfortunate dent to solid progress
With the significant negative FV changes in Q1 and assuming a cautionary view on carry and success fees in the current market environment we expect adj. EBIT to decline in 2020 to EUR 1.2m (25.0m). We expect the fee-based profitability to continue to improve through growth in AUM. Fundraising projects are seen to be delayed by 0-6 months but are continuing nonetheless, and CapMan also flashed a second Growth fund. CapMan is seeking to achieve cost savings of up to 10% of its cost base, which are sought to be achieved without affecting growth ambitions.

BUY with a target price of EUR 1.95
The expected weak earnings in 2020, mainly due to the negative unrealized FV changes, makes valuation on near-term figures more challenging. Upside potential can be seen on 2021E peer multiples and dividend yields but with the weakened visibility due to the Coronavirus we assume a near-term uncertainty discount and retain our target price of EUR 1.95 and BUY-rating.

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