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Aspo - ESL’s EBIT not there yet

Aspo’s Q3 EBIT, at EUR 6.7m, missed our EUR 7.6m estimate by 12% (the consensus was EUR 7.8m). ESL improved, but still didn’t quite reach the level of EBIT we were expecting. Nevertheless, Aspo retains its FY ’19 guidance, implying steepening improvement for Q4.
  • Aspo booked Q3 revenue at EUR 148.0m, whereas we expected EUR 155.3m.
  • EBIT was EUR 6.7m vs our EUR 7.6m estimate.
  • ESL Shipping recorded EUR 43.4m in Q3 revenue vs our EUR 43.3m expectation. The dry bulk carrier posted EUR 4.4m in Q3 EBIT, compared to our EUR 5.3m estimate. Aspo says cargo volumes didn’t reach the previously estimated levels and this was especially due to steel industry shipments.
  • Telko’s Q3 revenue was EUR 74.7m compared to our EUR 81.5m estimate. The chemical distributor achieved EUR 2.4m in Q3 EBIT, while we expected EUR 2.7m. The resulting 3.2% operating margin was therefore in line with our 3.3% estimate.
  • Leipurin’s Q3 revenue stood at EUR 29.9m vs our EUR 30.5m estimate. Leipurin’s Q3 EBIT amounted to EUR 0.8m vs our EUR 0.9m expectation. The 2.7% operating margin was slightly below our 3.0% expectation.
  • Aspo retains its FY ‘19 operating profit guidance, according to which the company sees EUR 24-30m in EBIT. As Aspo booked EUR 15.7m in EBIT for the first nine months of ’19, the implication is a minimum of EUR 8.3m EBIT for Q4. In our view such a level should still be achievable, although might be a close call.

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